Eala’s slim chance of either Slam crown or zero WTA world title is same, but good fortune looms.
Grand Slam hero or WTA zero?
Newly crowned U.S. Open girls singles champ Alex Eala has a 23.4 per cent chance to be either, if we will base the career paths of said tournament’s former champions.
Before Eala, 47 women have won the U.S. Open girls singles tournament which started in 1974.
Law of averages
Of these 47, eleven won a women’s Grand Slam later in the career. However, the same number of ex-champs had failed to win a single Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) top tier tournament, although five of these winless players are still active and in their early-to-mid-twenties, with 2011 champ Grace Min the oldest at 28.
The last women’s Grand Slam winner among the ex-U.S. Open girls champs is 2009 winner Heather Watson. The British won the 2016 Wimbledon mixed doubles trophy, seven years after winning the juniors plum in New York.
Of the aforementioned eleven women Grand Slam winners, only four have won in singles play. They are Americans Lindsay Davenport (1992) and Jennifer Capriati (1989), one-time champ Marion Bartoli of France (2001), and twice victorious Victoria Azarenka of Belarus (2005). As such, Eala has an 8.5% chance of winning a women’s Grand Slam singles.
Of these four, two have also won a women’s Grand Slam in doubles play. They are three-time doubles champ Davenport and two-timer Azarenka. The remaining seven earned their trophies solely on doubles, including twenty-time champion Natasha Zvereva of Belarus (1987) and ten-time champ Cara Black of Zimbabwe (1997).
On the average, it took 5.6 years for these eleven to win a women’s Grand Slam after winning the U.S. Open girls singles title. If the law of averages are to be followed, Eala not only has a 23 per cent chance of winning tennis’ most coveted trophies, we might wait until the spring of 2028 for her to win it, if she will be a future winner.
Eala’s chance for further glory is also slim. Of the 47 ex-champs, only six went on the number one (three in singles and four in doubles, with Davenport being the only number one in both). Seven won Olympic medals and five of them won gold. Lastly, three—Davenport, Capriati, and Zvereva—have been inducted to the Tennis Hall of Fame.
Be that as it may, 31 retired ex-champs had, on the average, a modestly long professional career of eleven years (retiring in their mid-to-late twenties). If Eala hits that average, she might retire in 2031 at the prime age of 26.
In all, being a U.S. Open girls singles champ is quite an assurance of a winning career in tennis. On the average, the past 47 champs won eleven WTA top-tier trophies and earned $4,423,993.66, or P251,371,319.68—a mouth-watering amount of money waiting for Eala if she will end up a typical ex-girls champ.
In short, being a junior U.S. Open singles champ is solid stepping stone for an assured winning and earning career for Eala.
Open season
That said, Filipino sports fans must not expect the moon from Eala. After all, she is still an underage lady at seventeen and has one last junior Grand Slam left—the 2023 Australian Open—before she shifts full-time to seniors play after May 23.
As of present, Eala has a total of three junior Grand Slam, winning the 2020 Australian and 2021 French Open doubles; two low-tier International Tennis Federation circuit crowns (all singles), a career-high rank of 280th, and $55,887 (P3.17 million) in total earnings, making her a teenage millionaire.
Eala may be a hero like Davenport or a zero like Maria Bentivoglio (who won zero professional trophies and shifter career as a gynecologist), but the floodgates are open for WTA are open for young girls like her, considering the looming retirement of Serena Williams, the abrupt end of Asleigh Barty, and the sudden decline of Naomi Osaka.
While newly-crowned U.S. Open champ Iga Swiatek is the current consensus leader of women’s tennis, the WTA has witnessed one-hit wonders such as Bianca Andreescu, Emma Raducanu, Sloane Stephens, Sofia Kenin, and Elena Rybakina winning a Grand Slam out of nowhere.
It’s open season for Pinay rising star Alex Eala.
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